Mexico’s Presidential Election: Drugwar Security Plan of Each Candidate
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From Chivis :
The following will give a loose overview of each candidate’s stance on tackling the drugwar and its violence. I do not agree with the last paragraph as polls have reflected a majority support of Calderon’s attempt to secure violent regions, such as the use of the military.
The front runner and PRI candidate Enrique Peña Nieto has vacillated in his stance of withdrawal of forces. He has stated very little regarding his plan of action but has stated he considers the presence of forces culpable in the escalation of violence.
PAN party’s nomination of the respected and popular Josefina Vazquez Mota, if successful in her bid to the presidency would be the nations first woman president.
In election terms, there is ample amount of time to make it a horse race, and though Peña maintains a wide margin lead, that lead has tightened with a drop of over 10 points in the polls. Following the Insight article I have posted information on each of the candidates.
Mexico Presidential Candidates Play it Safe withSecurity Plans
Written by Tim Wilson for INSIGHT
Now that Mexico’s ruling right-of-centre NationalAction Party (PAN) has chosen Josefina Vazquez Mota as its candidate for theJuly 1 federal election, the Mexican people can stand back and assess how herpublic security strategy compares to those of the other two candidates: AndresManuel Lopez Obrador of the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution(PRD); and Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).
Of particular interest is how any strategy will tie inwith US policy, and to what extent new approaches will be informed by theaggressive tactics assumed by PAN president Felipe Calderon. We are only now enteringinto the heat of a six-month campaign; much can happen, and though Peña Nietois the clear favourite at present, he has stumbled of late, and Ms. VazquezMota will likely get a boost from her recent win. Lopez Obrador, running thirdin the polls, could also see a surge if he can transfer his rural base intourban support.
Below is an assessment of the three candidates’security platforms, and what the implications might be for the Mexican peopleand for Mexico-US relations.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD)
Lopez Obrador has been a firm critic of the tough,militarized approach pursued by Calderon. He has promised an even applicationof the law, proposing improved care for victims and an emphasis on theprotection of human rights. Practical suggestions include a single policecommand that will gradually assume security operations in areas that are nowunder the control of the Army and Navy, as well as a single intelligence agencytasked, in part, with tracking criminal financial networks.
The PRD leader has said that the training of this newpolice force will emphasize civic and moral values. Lopez Obrador has also saidthat he is committed to salary and benefits increases for police officersthroughout the country – hardly a new suggestion in Mexican politics. All inall, he has come up with ten proposed actions, but one main theme: organizedcrime cannot be combated as long as, due to its absence or its own actions, thegovernment itself is culpable in the erosion of human rights.
Lopez Obrador has also thrown down a gauntlet to theUnited States by claiming that as president he would firmly reject anyintelligence activities by US agencies, including the introduction of arms ormoney. This would halt the activities of CIA operatives and agents with theDrug Enforcement Agency (DEA); it would also, of course, ban the use ofunmanned drones.
It would also call into question the continuance of USaid. (Since 2008 the US government has contributed $1.6 billion in lawenforcement aid to the Calderón administration under the Merida Initiative).Given the US government’s botched “Fast and Furious” sting operation– in which guns were deliberately sold to drug operatives in Texas, only to seefederal agents lose track of them – this may have popular appeal.
Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI)
Peña Nieto is popular and charismatic, and is seen ashaving been a competent governor of the state of Mexico (2005-2011). His statedaim is to strengthen the security apparatus – even if it means a completereinvention of the present structure. Key to this would be ensuring that theMinistry of Public Security, for example, would have complete autonomy and befree of political interference.
Peña Nieto has stated that he would support awithdrawal of military forces from areas that have been hit hard by the war ondrugs; however, the terms and conditions have not been spelled out in anydetail. He has spoken of the need to maintain “order,” but hassuggested that the hard-line approach taken by Caldern has actually destabilizedthe nation.
This has led his opponents to suggest that he will letthe state retreat, and allow for de facto control of certain plazas by thecartels. That said, in response to accusations made by president Calderon thatthe PRI might negotiate with the cartels in order to keep the peace, Peña Nietoand other PRI party officials have clearly stated that they will not engage inany dialogue with criminal organizations.
Mr. Calderon, however, is not alone in his concern.American officials are believed to have stated in private that the PRI, whichruled Mexico for 71 years until losing to the PAN’s Vicente Fox in 2000, couldrevert to its old tactic of allowing some cartels to operate with a degree ofautonomy, so long as they keep the peace. It is unlikely, perhaps evenimpossible, that any candidate could blatantly support this approach during thepresidential campaign, but it may have some electoral appeal to a citizenryweary of the conflict.
Josefina Vazquez Mota (PAN)
Vazquez Mota has promised to continue with Calderon’shighly aggressive, militarized efforts to break the cartels. During the lastsix years of the Calderon administration the level of engagement with Mexicanand US law enforcement has reached unprecedented levels. Under Ms. Vazquez Motathis would continue, with more US aid likely to flow beyond law enforcement andinto efforts at strengthening Mexico’s justice system.
Programs that support CIA and drone activity wouldstay in place, and possibly even expand, though Ms. Vazquez Mota hasequivocated with regard to the role of the military in civilian areas. Her”firm hand” includes a proposal for life imprisonment for anypolitician found to have been corrupted by organized crime.
What It Means
The unpopularity of the war on organized crime, whichwas initiated by Calderon and has resulted in over 47,000 deaths, will be amajor liability for Vázquez Mota, who has promised “no truce” withthe cartels. So far, the political benefit has fallen to Peña Nieto, whorepresents a fresh face and, he would argue, a reformed PRI. Lopez Obrador, whonarrowly lost the last election against Calderon, is seen by some as a man whois too sure of himself – he staged six weeks of demonstrations after hispresidential defeat which, in the end, reduced his popularity. But he hasimpressive name recognition, and support from a poor and rural base that,thanks to electoral reforms, now actually gets most of its votes counted.
Whatever the outcome, the United States will work withany of the three leaders. The irony is that Vazquez Mota may lose this electionto Peña Nieto as a result of the unpopularity of her predecessor’s securitypolicies, yet it is highly likely that the PRI will continue the same overallcourse of action. If the PRD were to win, however, we could expect a chillyreception from Washington, and real anxiety that the bilateral efforts thathave been made to date would be for naught. This is not to say that LopezObrador would capitulate to the drug cartels, but by reducing cooperation withthe US, and pulling security forces out of some areas, the result could be aneffective ceding of certain plazas to organized crime.
Addendum posted by Chivis:
PAN
A center-right party, thePAN was founded in 1939 and was long considered the “loyal opposition” toMexico’s long-ruling PRI. Though it was tolerated along with other oppositionparties throughout the PRI’s 71 years in power, the PAN was never permitted towin a significant election until its first gubernatorial win in 1989. The PANbecame the first party to defeat the PRI and break its strangle-hold on the presidency in 2000 with Vicente Fox as theircandidate. Fox, a relative partyoutsider with a successful career as CEO of Coca-Cola, The PAN won again in a tight election in 2006with the current President Felipe Calderón.
Presently, the PAN holdseight state governorships and 28.2 percent of the seats in the Chamber ofDeputies (147 out of 500) and 39.1 percent of the Senate (50 of the 128 seats).
PRI
Formed after the devastatingMexican Revolution (1910-1920) and the period of political instability thatfollowed, the PRI was formed in an effort to prevent further violence amongrival political groups. The stabilitythat ensued was so successful that the party dominated at all levels ofgovernment until 2000. The PRI held all state governorships until 1989, amajority in both congressional chambers until 1997, and the presidency until2000.
Organized around broad“sectors” of society, the PRI stayed in power and kept its incorporated groupsin the coalition through a combination of party discipline and governmentlargess, and supplemented with a combination of electoral manipulation, intimidationand outright fraud, as well as ideological swings intended to reflect broaderpolitical dynamics in the country. Historically, the party has been considerednationalist, with members from the socialist left to a business elite making upits ranks.
After two tough presidentialelections (2000 and 2006), in which the PRI lost its grip on the presidency,the party has undergone a process of soul-searching and reforms in an attemptto break with its past and project an image of competent democratic leadership. The party swept the 2009 congressionalelections and now represent the largest faction in the Chamber of Deputies with48.0 percent (240 seats) and the second largest in the Senate with 27.8 percent(33 seats). They also now have 19 state governorships, and the prospects forthe 2012 presidential race seem much more promising than they did in the 2006election
PRD
In 1986, a group ofprominent left-leaning pro-reform priístas formed the Corriente Democrático(Democratic Current) within the PRI party in an effort to promote a moredemocratic and open party that they felt had become calcified and hierarchical.After their reforms failed to take root in the party, a number of them,including the son of former Mexican President and founder of the PRI – LázaroCárdenas, publically split with the PRI. President Cárdenas’s son, CuauhtémocCárdenas, quickly became the leader of a fractured and disaffected left, andran for President with the support of numerous parties in 1988.
Cárdenas is widely believedto have won the election, but it was marred by extensive allegations of fraudand the PRI’s candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gotari, was declared thewinner. After this experience, theparties of the left and disaffected priístas joined together to form the PRDand began the process of fielding unified candidates under the PRD banner.
The party is strongest inCentral and Southern Mexico, where it holds five governorships, the mayorshipof Mexico City, which it has held since Cuautémoc Cárdenas became the firstdirectly elected mayor of the capital city in 1997, and the majority of the MexicoCity Assembly. At present, there are 25 PRD senators, representing 19.5 percentof all seats, and 72 deputies, equaling 13.6 percent of the Chamber.
In federal elections until2006, the PRD generally trailed the other two major parties. However, in thatlast election, candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador lost the election by just.58 percent of the popular vote. López Obrador and his supporters denounced theelection as fraudulent, though the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) rejectedthis claim based on a partial recount and other evidence. When the IFE deniedthe request for a full recount, the PRD called for demonstrations in thecapital and named López Obrador the “legitimate president of Mexico.”
These tactics did not appealto all party members, leading to several years of bitter infighting. Recently,however, the major PRD figures put aside their divisions and appeared togetherin a united front to support their candidate for governor in the State ofMexico elections (July 3rd).
All photos and logos were added to the INSIGHT article